There's More To It Than Oil, By Chris Clugston

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The end of our industrial lifestyle paradigm will be dictated by Liebig’s Law, and by humanity’s response to its consequences. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know at this point which increasingly scarce nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) or NNR combination will ultimately prove to be industrialized humanity’s limiting factor.

Consequently, humanity’s global societal collapse may be triggered by scarcity associated with one or more NNRs other than those commonly considered “most critical” to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm—fossil fuels, or oil specifically. After all, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by a faulty o-ring.

NNR Scarcity

Many analysts of nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) scarcity focus on fossil fuels specifically, or on oil exclusively. From their perspective, energy—or “liquid energy” (oil)—is the primary or sole enabler of our industrial lifestyle paradigm; and energy scarcity is the greatest imminent threat to our industrialized way of life.

Totally overlooked or given only passing mention by these analysts are the metals and nonmetallic minerals that serve as the building blocks for the infrastructure, machinery, tools, and products that enable our industrialized way of life. If fact, of the 89 NNRs that enable our industrial lifestyle paradigm, 86 are metals and nonmetallic minerals; 3 are fossil fuels.

While the criticality associated with the 89 NNRs varies, each plays an important role in enabling the lifestyles to which we in the industrialized West feel entitled, to which billions in industrializing nations aspire, and to which scarcity associated metals and nonmetallic minerals, especially in combination, will be equally as disruptive as will scarcity associated with fossil fuels.

Metal and Nonmetallic Mineral Scarcity

Such disruptions became painfully evident at the inception of our Great Recession in 2008, by which time 59 of the 86 metals and nonmetallic minerals that enable our industrial lifestyle paradigm had become scarce globally.

(An NNR was considered scarce globally in 2008 in the event that globally available NNR supplies between the years 2000 and 2008 were insufficient to prevent an inflation adjusted NNR price level increase during the 2000-2008 period. In such cases, the 2008 globally available, economically viable NNR supply was insufficient to completely address the 2008 global NNR requirement.)

Among the globally scarce metals and minerals in 2008:

Metal	2000-2008 Price Increase	Critical Applications
Chromium	266%	Stainless steel, super alloy in jet engines and gas turbines
Copper	190%	Thermal and electrical conducting applications, including super-conducting; metal alloy; and antibacterial applications; essential to all plant and animal life
Iron Ore	132%	The only feedstock for iron and steel
Magnesium	99%	Structural applications (aluminum alloy) in cars, aerospace equipment, electronic devices, and beverage cans; die casting (zinc alloy); desulfurization of iron/steel; reducing agent (uranium production); and titanium production
Manganese	227%	Aluminum, iron, and steel alloy (stainless steel); gasoline additive; pigment; (disposable) dry cell batteries; required by all living organisms
Molybdenum	795%	Alloy and superalloy in aircraft parts electrical contacts, industrial motors and tool steels; catalyst; lubricant; fertilizer; adhesive; and pigment; required element in higher life forms
Tin	145%	Alloy (in bronze, pewter, and solder), anti-corrosive metal coating, food packaging, manufacture of window glass, and superconducting magnets
Tungsten	239%	High temperature electrical and electronic applications such as incandescent light bulb filaments, rocket engines (nozzles), and turbine blades; fabrication of cutting and wear-resistant materials; x-ray tubes, wear-resistant and high temperature alloys and superalloys; armaments; and catalyst
Uranium	215%	Fuel in the nuclear power industry, weapons (including high density penetrators), and dating rocks and fossils
Vanadium	547%	Iron and steel alloy, high speed tool steels, catalyst in the production of sulfuric acid, superconducting magnets, and surgical instruments

Selected Globally Scarce Nonmetallic Minerals

Nonmetallic Mineral	2000-2008 Price Increase	Critical Applications
Clays	25%	Bricks, ceramics, tile, refractory agents, and sealants
Fluorspar	39%	Hydrofluoric acid, as the feedstock for fluorine bearing chemicals (refrigerant and thermoplastic applications); processing aluminum and uranium; water fluoridation; and petroleum refining
Graphite	24%	High technology applications—composites (carbon fibers), electronics, lubricants, batteries and fuel cells—and refractory applications
Gypsum	115%	Wallboard, plaster, and cement; also used as a soil conditioner
Phosphate Rock	145%	Primary component of NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium) fertilizers, which are indispensible to modern agriculture; animal feed supplements; and industrial chemicals
Potash	230%	Primary component of NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizers, which are indispensible to modern agriculture; used in manufacturing soaps, glass, ceramics, chemical dyes, drugs, synthetic rubber, de-icing agents, water softeners, and explosives
Sand & Gravel	71%	Industrial sand and gravel are used in glassmaking, hydraulic fracturing applications, foundries (casting), as an abrasive (sandblasting), on icy highways, and water filtration
Sulfur	750%	Production of sulphuric acid, the world’s most widely produced and used inorganic chemical; fertilizer and fertilizer production (phosphate extraction); black gunpowder, matches, insecticides, and fungicides; essential element in living organisms

By the middle of the first decade of the new millennium, metal and nonmetallic mineral producers were finding it increasingly difficult to bring online sufficient economically viable supplies to completely address global requirements—despite the fact that the price levels associated with the vast majority of metals and nonmetallic minerals trended upward since the year 2000 or before.

By 2008, the earth could no longer keep pace with ever-increasing global metal and nonmetallic mineral requirements. Sufficient quantities could not be physically extracted from the earth in a timely and cost-effective manner to perpetuate global pre-recession economic output (GDP) levels and growth trajectories—the vast majority of metals and minerals, in addition to the three fossil fuels, had become scarce globally.

The Great Recession—which should be understood more broadly as an ecological phenomenon rather than simply as an economic phenomenon—ensued.

The Total NNR Scarcity Story

It could be argued that in the absence of sufficient fossil fuels, the earth’s metals and nonmetallic minerals could not be used to enable our industrial lifestyle paradigm. It could just as easily be argued that in the absence of sufficient metals and nonmetallic minerals, the earth’s fossil fuels would be equally as useless in enabling our industrialized way of life.

The point is that all NNRs are important; and while coal, natural gas, and oil are certainly indispensible to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm, all NNRs must be taken into account when considering humanity’s future.

Consider that even if we are somehow able to solve our “liquid fuels problem”, or more broadly, our “energy problem”, we will not resolve humanity’s predicament—i.e., our industrial lifestyle paradigm is unsustainable. Most metals and nonmetallic minerals will become increasingly scarce going forward, thereby undermining our industrial lifestyle paradigm within the next few decades—even if energy is unlimited and free.

And ironically, because many of the metals and nonmetallic minerals that are critical elements of our prospective “alternative energy solutions” are scarce as well—see the following table—it is almost inconceivable that sufficient economically viable supplies of these metals and nonmetallic minerals will remain available to solve our energy problem.

 

Globally Scarce Metals and Nonmetallic Minerals in 2008

NNR	NNR Price Levels
	2000	2008	Change
Aluminum	$1,550	$2,020	30%
Antimony	$1,360	$4,670	243%
Asbestos	$163	$565	247%
Barite	$44	$54	23%
Beryllium	$152,000	$265,000	74%
Bismuth	$7,720	$21,200	175%
Bromine	$852	$1,120	31%
Cadmium	$343	$4,480	1206%
Cement	$74	$78	5%
Chromium	$721	$2,640	266%
Clays	$18	$22	25%
Cobalt	$28,100	$51,800	84%
Copper	$1,840	$5,330	190%
Fluorspar	$118	$164	39%
Gold	$8,530,000	$21,200,000	149%
Graphite	$506	$625	24%
Gypsum	$14	$31	115%
Hafnium	$177,000	$260,000	47%
Indium	$178	$519	192%
Iodine	$13,800	$16,300	18%
Iron Ore	$24	$57	132%
Iron and Steel	108	221	105%
Kyanite	$210	$232	10%
Lead	$910	$2,010	121%
Lime	$57	$70	22%
Magnesium Comp	$384	$391	2%
Magnesium Metal	$2,640	$5,260	99%
Manganese	$551	$1,800	227%
Mercury	$4,260	$13,200	210%
Mica Scrap/Flake	$317	$388	22%
Molybdenum	$5,330	$47,700	795%
Nickel	$8,180	$16,000	96%
Niobium	$19,700	$27,773	41%
Nitrogen (Ammonia)	$145	$405	179%
Perlite	$32	$36	14%
Phosphate Rock	$24	$59	145%
Potash	$147	$485	230%
REMs	$6,110	$9,160	50%
Rhenium	$873,000	$1,540,000	76%
Salt	$23	$28	25%
Sand & Gravel (Con)	$5	$6	24%
Sand & Gravel (Ind)	$14	$23	71%
Selenium	$8,020	$53,900	572%
Silicon	$1,080	$1,720	59%
Silver	$162,000	$398,000	146%
Soda Ash	$69	$102	48%
Stone (Crushed)	$5	$7	39%
Strontium	$830	$942	13%
Sulfur	$23	$199	750%
Thallium	$1,230,000	$3,710,000	202%
Thorium	$78,100	$151,000	93%
Tin	$7,730	$18,900	145%
Titanium Concentrate	$94	$111	18%
Titanium Metal	$8,240	$11,800	43%
Tungsten	$7,840	$26,600	239%
Uranium	$11	$33	215%
Vanadium	$6,780	$43,900	547%
Zinc	$1,160	$1,480	28%
Zirconium	$355	$597	68%

Note that the fossil fuels were scarce globally in 2008 as well!

Global Fossil Fuel Scarcity in 2008

NNR	NNR Price Levels
	2000	2008	Change
Coal (ST)	$19	$29	52%
Natural Gas (000 CF)	$3.37	$8.63	156%
Oil (BBL)	$29	$101	244%

Energy is certainly an essential enabler of humanity’s industrial lifestyle paradigm; and fossil fuels are certainly humanity’s major sources of primary energy. But fossil fuels are only part of the NNR scarcity story, and focusing on fossil fuel scarcity or oil scarcity to the exclusion of metal and nonmetallic mineral scarcity is myopic at best and tragically misguided at worst.

Editor’s Notes
Chris Clugston Bio Since 2006, I have conducted extensive independent research into the area of “sustainability”, with a focus on nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) scarcity. NNRs are the fossil fuels, metals, and nonmetallic minerals that enable our modern industrial existence. I have sought to quantify from a combined ecological and economic perspective the extent to which America and humanity are living unsustainably beyond our means, and to articulate the causes, magnitude, implications, and consequences associated with our “predicament”. My previous work experience includes thirty years in the high technology electronics industry, primarily with information technology sector companies. I held management level positions in marketing, sales, finance, and M&A, prior to becoming a corporate chief executive and later a management consultant. I received an AB/Political Science, Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa from Penn State University, and an MBA/Finance with High Distinction from Temple University. coclugston@gmail.com