Abstract
Although the sudden high rate Arctic methane increase at Svalbard in late 2010 data set applies to only a short time interval, similar sudden methane concentration peaks also occur at Barrow point and the effects of a major methane build-up has been observed using all the major scientific
observation systems. Giant fountains/torches/plumes of methane entering the atmosphere up to 1 km across have been seen on the East Siberian Shelf. This methane eruption data is so consistent and aerially extensive that when combined with methane gas warming potentials, Permian extinction event temperatures and methane lifetime data it paints a frightening picture of the beginning of the now uncontrollable global warming induced destabilization of the subsea Arctic methane hydrates on the shelf and slope which started in late 2010. This process of methane release will accelerate exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this century.
Introduction
The 1990 global atmospheric mean temperature is assumed to be 14.49 oC (Shakil, 2005; NASA, 2002; DATAWeb, 2012) which sets the 2 oC anomaly above which humanity will lose control of her ability to limit the effects of global warming on major climatic and environmental systems at 16.49 oC (IPCC, 2007). The major Permian extinction event temperature is 80 oF (26.66 oC) which is a temperature anomaly of 12.1766 oC above the 1990 global mean temperature of 14.49 oC (Wignall, 2009; Shakil, 2005).
Results of Investigation
Figure 1 shows a huge sudden atmospheric spike like increase in the concentration of atmospheric methane at Svalbard north of Norway in the Arctic reaching 2040 ppb (2.04 ppm)(ESRL/GMO, 2010 – Arctic – Methane – Emergency – Group.org). The cause of this sudden anomalous increase in the concentration of atmospheric methane at Svalbard has been seen on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf where a recent Russian – U.S. expedition has found widespread, continuous powerful methane seepages into the atmosphere from the subsea methane hydrates with the methane plumes (fountains or torches) up to 1 km across producing an atmospheric methane concentration 100 times higher than normal (Connor, 2011). Such high methane concentrations could produce local temperature anomalies of more than 50 oC at a conservative methane warming potential of 25.
Read the rest of this article with detailed graphs
Reposted from Arctic News
Intellectually I understand this well may be true. But in my Guts and human arrogance I can’t believe it! It’s just another bit of crap the toughest species ever will have to take in our stride 🙂 F@ck methane! And that’s the problem we simply cannot believe this could happen to us, probably the dinosaurs felt the same way until it ended. 🙁
Yes John, all of this is so horrifying that our first human tendency is to scream, “This can’t be happening.” But IN FACT, it is.
Who wrote this article? I followed the link to the Arctic news website, and read the rest of the article with the graphs, but no authors are listed, nor is there any information about Arctic News. With something as apparently momentous as this article, I am puzzled, and troubled, not to see any author(s) listed for this article, nor any real information about where it comes from, or the credentials of the writers.
While I could not find reference to the author, I did Google “Arctic Methane release” and got a ton of articles that discuss the same problem with various timelines and possibilities.
I do believe that it is going to happen but only the ‘when’ is questionable. I do NOT believe it will take more than a decade or so. If it is bubbling up in the oceans in visible amounts and being released in larger and larger quantities from perma-frost then it is already too late.
Thanks for your comment Makati. Because there is some doubt from some readers about the validity of this article, Allow me to include an excerpt of posts that I sent out in my November 26 Daily News Digest. Also, know that I am working on an article as we speak about the Sixth Extinction. Related stories and comments from me are:
You Tube: MUST WATCH: Guy McPherson At Bluegrass Bioneers Discusses Our Global Climate Predicament
My comment: While this video is not Hollywood quality, it is not to be missed. Guy will knock your socks off with this presentation on climate change and how much worse it is than we are being told.
Common Dreams: MUST READ: World Famous Accounting Firm Price Waterhouse: A 6 Degree Celsius Temperature Rise By 2100 Should End Business As Usual
My comment: It will also end human life and perhaps all life on planet earth.
PWC: It’s Too Late For Two Degrees
The 2011 rate of improvement in carbon intensity was 0.8%. Even doubling our rate of decarbonisation, would still lead to emissions consistent with six degrees of warming. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding two degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation.
Ecoshock Radio: Relinked: Kevin Anderson: What They Won’t Tell You About The Climate Catastrophe
NY Times: Rising Seas, Vanishing Coastlines
UK Independent: Rise Of Acid Ocean Eats Away Base Of Food Chain
Truthdig: Chris Hedges: Stand Still For The Apocalypse
A failure to respond will assure an ecological nightmare that will most probably be accompanied by an economic, social and political breakdown. The human species, the report says, will cross “critical social system thresholds,” and “existing institutions that would have supported adaptation actions would likely become much less effective or even collapse.” The “stresses on human health, such as heat waves, malnutrition, and decreasing quality of drinking water due to seawater intrusion, have the potential to overburden health-care systems to a point where adaptation is no longer possible, and dislocation is forced.”
My comment: The last 7 stories present DEVASTATING news regarding climate change that either we aren’t being told or that we choose to ignore, or both. No, it is not pleasant, but then no one receives this Daily News Digest because they want a daily dose of sugar-coated reality. Since it is almost certain that the powers that be will do NOTHING to alleviate climate change, we must do two things: 1) Hasten and support total economic collapse which is the one reality that is most likely to slow climate change down significantly; 2) Adapt in place in our own local communities to respond to catastrophic climate change. There is no longer anywhere to go to avoid it. In order to do this, we must form alliances with others in our communities who understand the severity of the catastrophe and will join with us to adapt. Let’s start thinking and talking in terms of a CLIMATE FISCAL CLIFF.
When I scrolled to the end of the paper (about 60% down the total length of the page), I found Malcolm Light’s name listed as the author, just before the references.
Malcolm Light 9th February, 2012
Climate change is in the making,absolutely no doubt,but the most important news du jour is, the super rich keep their privileged position, GNP must grow or the system dies, absolute refusal to change our life style. Pregnant Royalty-now that’s news! Born into a world not of their making young minds are programed with the belief of past generations, shedding those belief is dangerous to their health and quasi impossible to accomplish for 99%. The human mind has the ability to comprehend the dialectics of contradiction,but the body responds only to pleasurable and
immediate gratification.
To Carolyn:
I believe the source for the above article was Malcolm Light. I researched his bio several months ago and was unable to find any real credentials.
In reading the comments to the article and your contribution, I thought you might be interested in the links listed below, especially if you intend to write an article yourself on the subject of anthropogenic global warming and the resulting climate. The information is valuable in understanding why so many articles are now appearing with much more severe forecasts.
Sources – Runaway climate change – David Wasdell
Both the below links can be found with a google search using the following search phrase – Youtube david wasdell
The first link I have included because your reply above. You mentioned the articles you sited agree that the climate situation is much worse than the 2007 IPPC report led the public to believe. David Wasdell is a respected climate scientist, (google his bio), who was responsible for reviewing parts of the scientific draft of that report. In this presentation he comments on the selection of the science included in the report, and the wording of the final draft. It is a must for listening, if you are indeed writing on this subject. Specifically listen from the 10:00 minute mark through minute 17:00, and you will know why the climate we are experiencing today, ‘is way ahead of projections’.
This tape was produced in 2007.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_aMbM20mbg
However, to get a very understandable presentation of the dynamics behind the runaway climate change we are beginning to feel the effects of today, this second link is David Wasdell speaking at the Taellberg Forum in 2008.
In the presentation, feedback loops feeding back, exponential climate sensitivity, heat inertia feed back, and second order feedbacks are all discussed, and it is these system dynamics that were edited from the final 2007 IPCC Report, that later became the ‘public version’. Without these dynamics included within the models or the general theory of runaway global warming, it leaves the lineal interpretation of climate sensitivity and feedback loops controlling the data, when an exponential interpretation is proving to be more realistic.
After reviewing the presentations of David Wasdell, you might want to include some of the information in you article.
dotsub.com/view/49457cd9-497b-490d-b1e1-b22a845c6f0c
This presentation can also be found in hard copy, with the science and math presented, if you are so inclined to review the procedure behind the computation.
Linked below –
http://www.crisis-forum.org.uk/events/Workshop1/Workshop1_presentations/wasdell_talberg_revised.php ~
I’ll look forward to reading your article. hf
To Carolyn:
I noticed the second link to the David Wasdell at the Taellberg forum did not light up, when I posted. You can access the presentation as stated above, by googling, Youtube david wasdell , then scroll down to the presentation, … Planet Earth, We have a Problem. It was the name of the presentation, at the forum.
Good luck.
Here he is, seems a bit reclusive, I see references to a doctorate but not where from, is said to be a retired professor (where?) and consultant (to whom?) — does not appear to have published much, except about geoengineering with his radio transmitter (claimed to dissolve methane). Grain of salt until I know more, someone might friend him and ask. I going out to the garden.
https://www.facebook.com/malcolm.light.50
Well, I might be hasty, there are a few petro/geo things in Scholar that might be him.
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22malcolm+light%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C38&as_sdtp=
Correction, above: “I AM going out to the garden” Really.
Strange as this may sound, my father is Malcolm Light. He’s part of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (http://www.ameg.me) who are a handful of scientists all over the world, from all walks of life, that have got together to try and figure out a way to avert the catastrophe that will occur from global warming.
He’s has an idea to use the Air Force’s HAARP (high energy communications network) and broadcast a 13.56 MHZ pulse to transform methane in the stratosphere and troposphere to nanodiamonds and hydrogen. I think it’s something like the radio waves disrupt the bonds between the molecules and that’s what breaks them up, but it needs to be very powerful.
He’s very similar to Doc Emmet Brown, if that is any kind of an explanation… But please feel free to ask anything you like… I’ll forward them on to him.
He has no patents on this stuff. He does not want any money for it. He just needs someone to do it…. we all need someone to do it.
This is not a joke. I honestly wish it was. Unfortunately we all have to do everything we can.
Rob, thanks for sharing this!
It’s cool Carolyn… we’re all in this together… it would have been nicer to be ‘in this together’ under different circumstances, but anyway…
Dad had decided to do something so that his grandson (my 3 year old) and everybody else’s children would have a future. At the moment it’s not looking very likely, unfortunately.
Lets hope they can get someone with funding to build/do what’s needed